A system of mobile agents to model social networks

We propose a model of mobile agents to construct social networks, based on a system of moving particles by keeping track of the collisions during their permanence in the system. We reproduce not only the degree distribution, clustering coefficient and shortest path length of a large data base of empirical friendship networks recently collected, but also some features related with their community structure. The model is completely characterized by the collision rate and above a critical collision rate we find the emergence of a giant cluster in the universality class of two-dimensional percolation. Moreover, we propose possible schemes to reproduce other networks of particular social contacts, namely sexual contacts.Comment: Phys. Rev. Lett. (in press

Sequences of purchases in credit card data reveal life styles in urban populations

Zipf-like distributions characterize a wide set of phenomena in physics, biology, economics and social sciences. In human activities, Zipf-laws describe for example the frequency of words appearance in a text or the purchases types in shopping patterns. In the latter, the uneven distribution of transaction types is bound with the temporal sequences of purchases of individual choices. In this work, we define a framework using a text compression technique on the sequences of credit card purchases to detect ubiquitous patterns of collective behavior. Clustering the consumers by their similarity in purchases sequences, we detect five consumer groups. Remarkably, post checking, individuals in each group are also similar in their age, total expenditure, gender, and the diversity of their social and mobility networks extracted by their mobile phone records. By properly deconstructing transaction data with Zipf-like distributions, this method uncovers sets of significant sequences that reveal insights on collective human behavior.Comment: 30 pages, 26 figure

Understanding predictability and exploration in human mobility

Predictive models for human mobility have important applications in many fields including traffic control, ubiquitous computing, and contextual advertisement. The predictive performance of models in literature varies quite broadly, from over 90% to under 40%. In this work we study which underlying factors - in terms of modeling approaches and spatio-temporal characteristics of the data sources - have resulted in this remarkably broad span of performance reported in the literature. Specifically we investigate which factors influence the accuracy of next-place prediction, using a high-precision location dataset of more than 400 users observed for periods between 3 months and one year. We show that it is much easier to achieve high accuracy when predicting the time-bin location than when predicting the next place. Moreover, we demonstrate how the temporal and spatial resolution of the data have strong influence on the accuracy of prediction. Finally we reveal that the exploration of new locations is an important factor in human mobility, and we measure that on average 20-25% of transitions are to new places, and approx. 70% of locations are visited only once. We discuss how these mechanisms are important factors limiting our ability to predict human mobility

Role of persistent cascades in diffusion

We define a structural property of real-world large-scale communication networks consisting of the recurring patterns of communication among individuals, which we term persistent cascades. Using methods of inexact tree matching and agglomerative clustering, we group these patterns into classes which we claim represent some underlying way in which individuals tend to disseminate information. We extend methods from epidemic modeling to offer a way to analytically model this recurring structure in a random network, and comparing to the data, we find that the real cascading structure is significantly larger and more recurrent than the random model. We find that the cascades reveal a habitual hierarchy of spreading, alternative roles in weekday vs weekend spreading, and the existence of hidden spreaders. Finally, we show that cascade membership increases the likelihood of receiving information spreading through the network through simulation on the real order of communication events

Limits of Predictability in Commuting Flows in the Absence of Data for Calibration

The estimation of commuting flows at different spatial scales is a fundamental problem for different areas of study. Many current methods rely on parameters requiring calibration from empirical trip volumes. Their values are often not generalizable to cases without calibration data. To solve this problem we develop a statistical expression to calculate commuting trips with a quantitative functional form to estimate the model parameter when empirical trip data is not available. We calculate commuting trip volumes at scales from within a city to an entire country, introducing a scaling parameter α to the recently proposed parameter free radiation model. The model requires only widely available population and facility density distributions. The parameter can be interpreted as the influence of the region scale and the degree of heterogeneity in the facility distribution. We explore in detail the scaling limitations of this problem, namely under which conditions the proposed model can be applied without trip data for calibration. On the other hand, when empirical trip data is available, we show that the proposed model's estimation accuracy is as good as other existing models. We validated the model in different regions in the U.S., then successfully applied it in three different countries